In Executive Protection/Close Protection, the protection detail will do what is called an "Advance". In an Advance, an individual or team will research locations that their Principal (Person they are protecting) is going to visit and find out everything they can about the location/area. This starts with a threat assessment, then moves on to other things like local defense law, Police and medical support, road conditions/closures, etc. It is even crucial for a good EP/CP team or individual to be so well versed in the location that they can answer any number of needs their Principal may have (bathroom locations, AED locations, fire extinguisher locations, convenience stores, local shopping options, restaurants/food options and prices, and the list goes on) like a local of the area. This is a very handy skill to have, and not just for pistol selection but for life in general.
For EDC, start by making a list of your common areas (Locations such as work/school/class, gas stations, stores, restaurants, and any place you frequent). Don't forget to look at the places/neighborhoods you have to go through to get to that common area. This may be a long list, and that is okay. Most EP Agents don't have time to go into this kind of detail, but you better bet they wish they did because dead clients don't pay and dead Agents don't get paid. Take the time and do the work and it will pay off in the end.
After making a list of your common areas, make a list of areas of interest (The neighborhood(s) your relatives live in, common recreational/vacation spots, the gun range, and so on). Again, look at the towns/cities/neighborhoods you have to go through on the way. You should conduct this type of research for any road trip or vacation you are planning. You don't have to be too organized or nerdy, but at least keep track of the details.
After listing your common areas and areas of interest, conduct a rudimentary threat assessment (www.crimegrade.org) for every location on the list, to include the neighborhood/cities along the way. For each location, put the threats in order(starting with the highest likely crime to the least likely)for each area you listed. I would list the two highest violent crimes (assault, robbery, kidnapping, rape) first and follow up with the highest property crimes (Vehicle theft, burglary, vandalism, trespassing). Now you have your list of likely threats to prepare against. You may notice that there is a significantly higher amount of property crime in relation to violent crime.
Before we continue I want to discuss why we look at neighborhoods and cities that are on the way to your common areas. First, wouldn't you want to know if there is a particular neighborhood you REALLY should not leave your vehicle in if you have a flat tire or run out of gas? Does this neighborhood have a disproportionately high vehicle theft, robbery, or vandalism rate compared to the rest of the town/city? Secondly, if you know all the stops along the way and the comparative threat profiles, you can select designated safe stopping points in case you have to stop on the way to/from your common areas for bathroom breaks, gas, or just some munchies. It is usually these little pit stops that people find themselves fighting for their life. Do the research ahead of time and reassess the areas/neighborhoods periodically and make changes to your stopping points change as needed.
Once your rudimentary threat assessment is done, it is time to dive into the details and start looking at the areas on your list with a bit of a microscope. I look at the environment of the location (more than just sunshine, rain, snow, etc.), duration/distance to the location, group/support in the area, and finally my threats and ROEs for engaging them. Consider this step to be your Location analysis. All the information you need is going to be found through OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) sources on the internet with keyword searches. In this specific situation, Google and a little nosiness have been very good friends. A few of the analysis questions will only be known if you are on site, but most can be answered with the help of Google.
ENVIRONMENT:
- What is the threat assessment for the area (search by specific zip or neighborhood)?
- Where is your mission (The mall, a store, a park)?
- What is the size of your "area(s) of responsibility" (The limit of your effective engagement based on your location. This is dynamic and can be the general area you are in like an entire wing of a mall)?
- What/where (North/South/East/West) are some key terrain features/buildings (Possible strong-points, identifiers for dispatch orientation) relative to the location(s) you are going to?
- Are you operating at night (outside or inside)?
- Are you operating in urban or rural terrain (carry laws)?
- What will the temperature/weather be (projected weather 2 hours before and after)?
- What are the highest and lowest temperatures throughout the year (on average)?
- Possible cover/concealment in the area (concrete barriers are cover, vehicles are concealment)?
- Is the location near a high-crime/gang neighborhood?
- Local/State/Federal Police policy for confiscation (Will you get your pistol back after being cleared of charges? How long after? What's the process?)
- Local use of force/deadly force laws
DURATION/DISTANCE:
- How far is it to your location (Miles/minutes of travel average)?
- What towns/neighborhoods do you pass through to get to your designated area/location?
- How long does the task usually take (Best guess plus 30 minutes)?
- If you call 911, how long will that take for them to get to you (Search EMS, Fire, Police response times by zip code)?
GROUP/SUPPORT:
- What is your role in the mission (Driver, bag holder, child shepherd, security, etc.)?
- Who do you support (Your family/friends) and who supports you (Friends in area, other legally armed citizens)?
- How many people are you with (Family of group) and what are their roles (Wife/GF: secondary medic and primary child shepherd, Father-in-law: Primary driver and secondary security, Son: Secondary child shepherd, etc.)?
- What and where is the nearest Hospital, Police station, Fire station, and what are their response times(Hospital trauma center rating, Police capabilities like K9, SWAT, EOT, HRT)?
- Where are the bathrooms located (capacity and can it be locked)?
- Where are the fire extinguishers and AEDs (Check front and rear of the store, hallways leading to employee offices, near bathrooms)?
- Where are the exits and where do they lead (North side of the building to the wood line, East side of the building on the street)?
- Where is the nearest enroute gas station (Price)?
-What are some restaurant/food options (Price)?
THREATS/ROEs:
- How many possible threats are in the operational area (Estimate based on population of location and threat assessment)?
- What are the possible threats while commuting to your designated locations (based on threat assessment of areas being passed through while going to designated locations)?
- Is your threat likely to be armed? If so, with what (Active killers may have body armor)?
- Under what conditions is deadly force authorized (Vehicle theft, unarmed battery, blunt/bladed assault & battery)?
- What is the likely response of population to deadly force shooting (Crossfire issues, blue on blue fire, mob attack)?
- Do you have a less lethal capability (OC, blunt object, DTAC skills)?
- What are the laws for less lethal weapon usage?
- What is the regional threat assessments/recent criminal activity (In order of most to least likely)?
- Any cultural considerations (seasonal dress, political views, attitude towards LE, racial views, gender role views, etc.)?
After you have conducted a location analysis on all your common areas, you should be able to answer the following questions:
- What caliber should I use (Barriers and # of threats, not trend on the internet)?
- Do I need a weapon mounted light (Weapon-mounted lights aren't needed for carry, but a handheld light is almost always needed)?
- What kind of ammo should I use (Based on barriers and weather, not popularity)?
- How many, if any, spare mags should I carry (Proximity to high crime/gang neighborhoods)?
- Should I carry a compact or subcompact (Based on totality of the circumstances. Accuracy and terminal performance can degrade at a compounding rate as the distance increases. Concealment throughout the year)?
- How much should I spend on the pistol (Based on if your Police Department(s) are likely to take your pistol indefinitely)?
After these questions are generally answered, it just goes down to preference and what fits in your hand and allows you the best grip and ease of use.
If you are only planning for home defense, your planning should be relatively simple and straight-forward due to it's static nature. Concealed carry/EDC is extremely dynamic and includes many variables to include weather, politics, transportation, economics, holidays, etc. You will have to factor in transportation method(s), alternate routes, contingency plans (vehicle collision, flat/slashed tire, bathroom breaks), etc. I would also have plans for other things along the way and get to know your common areas. As Patrick McNamara says, be the AIC (Agent In Charge) of your own protection detail.
I will reiterate here that 99% of professionals do not get this kind of choice for selecting a pistol for a mission. But since most of my readers are privileged civilian gun owners, I think it is helpful to look at this selection process to be able to analyze their own situation and what you may/may not use a pistol for. This kind of analysis can go a long way in you selecting a firearm for self defense. Whether it is going to be your EDC or home defense pistol, this selection process can help. Use your melon and think for yourself, not with others.